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Economic new trend and new trend in the industry: high potential health industry

Browse the number: Date:2014-12-19 11:24

The first three quarters of this year China's economy may appear concussion uplink (weak growth), in the final quarter may be down. From 2013 to 2014 this period of time in our country's economy might appear an adjustment process. Until after 2015, the Chinese economy may be out of this round of adjustment, steps into medium growth track. The future potential of industry mainly include energy conservation and environmental protection industry, ecological industry, Marine industry, information industry, green industry, cultural industry, health industry, producer services, modern agriculture, industries related to the new type of urbanization.

China's economy and medium-term trend new where is it

Short-term (2013) from China's economic trends. Throughout the year will be the trend of "before" lowered later. It is the opposite of the direction of the 2012, 2012 is a decline in the first three seasons, a rebound in the fourth quarter. And the first three quarters of 2013 China's economy may appear concussion uplink (weak) growth trend, in the final quarter may be down. About in the first three quarters of this year the economy will continue to shock uplink (weak) to the growth of the reason, basically have the following points.

First, at the end of 2012 the economic rebound of aftershock is still there, "path dependence" make this rebound last a period of time. Second, the government transition, brought new confidence to investors and consumers, thus promote economic upward. Third, the central proposed to promote the new urbanization. After the new emphasis on promoting the urbanization, the local government, capital market, real estate enterprises are encouraged, so as to drive the economy continued to shake up. Fourth, the international economic turnaround, particularly in the United States economy continues to recover, the eu economy stabilises, the Japanese economy improves, stimulate China's exports, promoting economic upward.

About the economy might appear at the end of the year downward reason has two aspects.

First, in May last year in our country the steady growth of policy measures, a certain degree of stimulus), the stimulus effects last time there will be a year or so. Such as the 4 trillion investment in early 2009, has brought rapid economic rebound, duration is one year or so. In fact since the second quarter of 2010, China's economy has a downward trend, GDP growth would fall from 12.1% in the first quarter of 2010 to 7.4% in the third quarter of 2012.

Short-term measures to stimulate policy is take temporary solution not effect a permanent cure, stops once the stimulus policies, economic might into the downlink channel. Because stimulus this "booster" cannot be hit, hit more there will be a negative effect. So measures of steady growth last year though since last October brought obvious rebound effect, the duration is not too long, but the rebound at most a year or so, by the end of this year's economic downward trend may occur.

Second, in the second might take new macro-control policies in the third quarter. Why will take macro-control policies? That's because as the GDP, such as industrial production index rebound and rising, there are a few key indicators also follow rebound, namely the CPI and prices rebound.

Actually the CPI and house prices had started to rebound from the end of last year, in February 2013, the CPI has reached 3.2%, some hotspot cities housing prices have begun to rebound. Such as Beijing and part of the building has increased by more than 20% to 30%. Of course, the new "the five" policy will make of this wave of rebound of inhibition. If the CPI, such as house prices continue to rebound again for several months, the people and the market will not be able to bear, when the central may take new macro-control measures, do not need too long time, the economy will be down again.

From China's economic long-term trends. From 2013 to 2014 this period our country's economy could be a adjustment process. Until after 2015, the Chinese economy may be out of this round of adjustment, steps into medium growth track.

Over the past 30 years of China's economy maintained a 10% of high-speed growth. High-speed growth stage is over now, the Chinese economy will step into medium growth period, by 6%, about 8% of the growth medium speed until around 2020, and 2020 years later may maintain at 4% - 4% to 2030, this 2030 can realize comrade xiaoping said 20 years ahead of the level of moderately developed countries.

Reach the level of moderately developed countries, growth will further down to 2% - 2%, as in most developed countries today. This is the law of economic development and other countries are so coming, in our country are no exception. , of course, that doesn't rule out individual years through stimulation of government policy can make economic growth more than 10%, but that is unsustainable, because our potential growth dropped, resources and environment constraints also more and more serious, namely, air pollution, water pollution, land pollution and other environmental degradation has not allowed to have such a high growth rate.

At present in recent years, our country is at the growth stage to the medium growth phase transformation stage, the decline in the economic growth rate, for many enterprises and industry in China has brought a lot of challenges, why the current under a lot of difficulties, there are a lot of enterprises have had a lot to do with this economic background.

But since 2015, although China's economic growth rate as high as the past, but can also maintain a 5% to 5% growth in one hundred and twenty, it still belongs to the high growth in the world. So the whole of China economic outlook is optimistic. Why is optimistic? There are two main reasons.

A is one of China's industrialization and urbanization is in the intermediate stage, the equivalent of a person is in her heyday. As industrialization urbanization continue to push forward, China's economy will remain in the medium or low speed growth in one hundred and twenty.

The second is the central have begun to emphasize to speed up the reform. As long as we make the reforms can mobilize the enthusiasm and creativity of the subject, can promote the technological progress, promote fusion, promote the structure upgrade, obtain a new productivity, this is called a dividend reform. Reform is China's largest future dividends. These two aspects to see China's long-term economic growth overall is optimistic.

What has the development potential of the industry in the future

According to the market trend analysis, according to the analysis of "eighteen big" report, the future potential of industry mainly include the following.

A, energy conservation and environmental protection industry. The eighteenth big report with particular emphasis on to develop the energy conservation and low carbon industry. Why the industry development prospects are good? There are two main reasons: one is the consumer acceptance. Consumers to buy any product, now begin to pay close attention to whether the product is energy saving, green environmental protection and low carbon, if the products meet these requirements, even if you are willing to buy cheap again conversely don't, this will become the market demand of power industry development; Second is to encourage governments around the world, including our government, to make a lot of policy support to encourage development of energy conservation and environmental protection industries.

Second, the ecological industry. The eighteenth big report with particular emphasis on construction of ecological civilization. Construction of ecological civilization from the perspective of industry needs a development of ecological industry. Ecological industry includes forestry, agriculture, aquaculture and desert governance industry, etc. In China face huge resources and environment pressure, need through the development of ecological industry, to achieve both save resources to protect the environment, and the purpose of economic development.

Three, Marine industry. Eighteen big report emphasized to develop the Marine economy, construction of sea power. Behind the development of Marine economy is the development of Marine industry. Ocean industries including fishery industry, oil and gas industry, new energy industry, etc. Some coastal provinces and cities has set up a blue economic experimental zone to speed the development of Marine industry.

Four, the information industry. Information industry in the 90 s, a development in around 2000 although encountered some setbacks, but didn't take long to prosper. Information industry is facing a new round of rapid growth, will likely big technology breakthrough, especially in the cross area of information industry and industry and other industries, will create many new industries. We have clear information industry is changing the production way of life. The development of information industry can reduce information cost, thereby giving impetus to the development of other industries, which is beneficial to the all industries. So the information industry and the huge development potential.

Five, the green industry. Industry with a attributive - green, that is, green industry and green here not only the color concept, but refers to the resource saving, environment friendly and energy conservation and emissions reduction. Industry is an important direction of the next upgrade green, low carbon, this is the world trend, goes forward, and strength. If an industry enterprises can take the lead in energy conservation and environmental protection do better than other enterprises, and the cost control in a certain range, that it can occupy the new markets, new competitiveness.

Six, the cultural industry. The eighteenth big report with particular emphasis on the cultural construction, the development of cultural industry put forward the concrete policy, including to the reading activities, innovative culture formats (300336, shares). Government policy to encourage is just one aspect, more important is the cultural industry in line with the direction of the consumption structure upgrade, "learn music on hong mei" these new there are a lot of cultural industry is required to meet consumer demand. With the improvement of people's living standard, we both need to improve the quality of themselves and their children, to improve their quality of life, the need of cultural industry to meet.

Seven, the health industry. In this case, the big health industry is the medical industry, pharmaceutical industry, the health care industry, pension services, etc. The eighteenth big reports emphasize to develop the industry of traditional Chinese medicine, development of pension services, etc. With the improvement of people's living standards, everyone want to pursue health, happiness, longevity, need to meet the industry, so the health industry has great development prospects.

Eight, producer services. Including finance, logistics and business services, etc., in which there is a part of business service industry and information industry. In terms of finance, the eighteenth big reports emphasize to develop private finance, which is restricted in before, now advocate to develop. In terms of the logistics industry, is the world 500 strong in several logistics enterprises, the modern logistics industry has just started in our country, the Courier companies in the logistics industry is mainly local express company, in the future there will be more and more people buy things through online shopping, logistics, express industry is needed to support this, so the industry development prospects.

Nine, the modern agriculture. Modern agriculture includes all kinds of sightseeing agriculture, tourism agriculture, facilities agriculture, leisure agriculture, agriculture, urban agriculture and foreign exchange earning agricultural experience. Modern agriculture than many people usually think higher return on investment, modern agriculture industry chain is longer, industrial added value is higher. Now in many big city suburb, investment measures such as modern agriculture return is good.

Ten, industry related to the new type of urbanization. The new urbanization involving real estate, construction and many services. Urbanization means population and factors of production from low efficiency area to transfer due to its high efficiency area, it can improve the efficiency of the whole national economy, at the same time bring a lot of the development of related industries.

More than ten industries, including the industry and information industry. In general, whether an industry has the development potential has three criteria: the first is the operator does not conform to the direction of the consumption structure upgrade, i.e. the market demand of industry has the potential to; The second is the operator does not accord with the direction of the green, low carbon, this is the world trend, The third is the operator does not conform to the direction of the government policy to encourage. If at the same time meet the three standards and conditions, the future development prospect of the industry may be better.

Which direction industrial transformation and upgrading

One is the information of the industry. Two fusion, promote industrialization and information technology in the increasingly fierce market competition and rapidly changing customer demand product profit margins squeezed under double pressures, manufacturing companies seeking to build value-added services and transformation and upgrading has been imperative. With the deepening of the combination of two, manufacturing needs further by means of informatization and the lean manufacturing, intelligent manufacturing. The realization of the digital factory will put the information technology, modern management technology and manufacturing technology, the combination of product design, operation and management, production of digital and integrated operation, thus improve enterprise's comprehensive competitiveness and comprehensive benefits, and ultimately help manufacturing enterprises in the fierce competition in the survival and development.

Second, the industry as a service. The development of manufacturing industry must and the integration of service industry development, information service industry itself is a service industry, and information industry is not only the service sector and is the bridge and the link of the development of manufacturing and service industries. Industry is divided into the services and manufacturing sector, it is for statistical analysis of convenience, these industries are mingled in real life, the sometimes-complex mix-and-match I have you in. Such as what is modern enterprise in Beijing? Mainly manufacturing, making cars, but also the proportion of the service sector accounted for 20 or 30 percentage. So the manufacturing value-chain blends development, manufacturing and services, is the important direction of the transformation and upgrading.

Three is the high-end of the industry. High-end, the so-called industry is to increase the added value of industry and its product, namely, to develop the knowledge and technology intensive industries. Why must be high-end? For two reasons: one is the demand of consumer class, must be higher to satisfy the new demand; Second is the era of "high cost", if don't achieve high-end, enterprise can't digest the high cost and realize the sustainable development.

Four is the characteristic of the industry. In the global collaboration system, we should develop industry has its own characteristics. To rely on its own characteristic resources, developing characteristic industrial, form the features of our competitiveness. Can only have distinctive advantages, can only be competitive advantages, only competitive and sustainable development.

Five is the clustering of the industry. According to the law of the industrial cluster to develop industry. For every enterprise, want to become the industry cluster "seed enterprises" as far as possible, or actively involved in the industrial cluster. Why do you want to promote industry cluster? Because industrial cluster to contain the industry development at the core of the secret, where the developed industrial clusters, economy is relatively developed, otherwise it is not very developed. Industry cluster can reduce cost from several aspects, such as lower production costs, marketing costs, transportation costs, learning cost, information cost, transaction cost, at the same time can produce a variety of benefits, such as scale economy, scope economy, network effect and agglomeration effect, etc.

How to promote industrial cluster? Standing in one place or the point of view, can be mainly take the following three steps: first, must be good at cultivating or introduce the seed enterprises of industrial cluster, through seed enterprises take root bloom, led a slice of the formation of industrial cluster; Second, must be good at using the industry groups, such as the chamber of commerce, associations to develop industrial cluster, because industry organization is very beneficial to the development of industrial cluster; Third, we should attach great importance to the role of small and medium-sized enterprises in industrial cluster, especially pay attention to small and medium-sized enterprise collaboration.

Six is the brand of the industry. The brand industry, brand, brand, brand products, brand entrepreneurs park, improve the added value through brand, to improve competitiveness by brand. Many brands are now controlled by foreign companies, we want to create Chinese own industry brand, improve the added value of industry and product in our country, also let other countries of the industrial chain lower-end work for us.

Seven is green low carbon industry. That is to say, we need to promote industry according to the requirements of saving resources, protecting the environment to develop, develop to meet the requirements of energy conservation and emissions reduction industry. Green, low carbon is the world trend goes forward, and strength. Only actively adapt to this trend, can survive in the future competition.

Eight is the internationalization of the industry. In today's era of economic globalization, enterprises should actively participate in the global industry division of labor cooperation, share the benefits of global collaboration. Even in our own home, under the new situation of internationalization, multinational companies have to play to our doorstep, internationalization is not no way out.

If the system is also taken into account, there is a problem of the market. That is to say, we should be more in the future use of market mechanisms to develop industry, the government's main planning guide effect, create a good institutional environment for industry development. Only in this way, the industry to achieve sustained development in the future, can form the real market competitiveness.